I don’t believe statistics. This is different than saying I don’t believe in them. There are scientific and mathematical theories that explain how they do reflect a certain reality. But when I hear the phrase “statistically speaking” I check out. It’s another one of those stick my fingers in my ears and LA-LA-LA-LA I’m not listening moments.
Perhaps my mistrust in statistics is rooted in a phrase from my childhood that I often heard my father say. “Figures can lie and liars can figure.” The lesson I took from it was to have the confidence to question things even if, in all appearances, they seemed to add up. That just because numbers are involved it doesn’t mean that’s where the story ends.
Lately, as I’ve spent more time on some of the great websites out there offering resources and support to cancer survivors and their loved ones, I have seen more and more posts by patients and caregivers sharing stories of being told by doctors their life expectancy. For the most part, the message these people have for the medical world is don’t impose your made up time frame on me….because the reality is, no one knows for sure how long any of us have.
We have the right to know what is going on with our health. We need to know certain things to be able to make informed choices. But the degree to which we wish to know the “facts” should also be a choice. It’s an important conversation to have up front with your medical team.
Gary didn’t want to know the list of potential side effects chemo may have or may not have had on him. He didn’t want to expect to lose his hair, experience nausea, become foggy from chemo brain or consider the possibility of not being able to work. He did lose his hair. He was sometimes sick from the chemo but he was able to work when he wanted to and was clear headed throughout his entire illness.
He had to deal with certain realities and side effects but by not anticipating what might happen, he didn’t waste time and energy worrying about things that never came to pass. This gave us more resources to invest in generating some balance to still have moments of life in between treatments, blood draws and doctor’s appointments.
When Gary was first diagnosed, one of our medical team tried to put us at ease by assuring us that, “If you’re going to get cancer then Hodgkin’s is the second best kind to get next to testicular because the cure rates are so high.”
Statistically speaking, Gary should have survived. But he did not. I don’t believe statistics.
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Ah, yes, why doctors (and laypeople) should avoid providing mathematical terms to others. No, that does not mean one should not be aware of mathematics, but, if one does not understand their derivation, one should rely upon those that do for explanations.
Statistics can’t tell you whether someone can live or die. That’s probability theory (and the name says it all). Statistics can tell you what has happened in the past. Given that past- and NO deviation from the environment(s) that determined those statistics, one can infer what may happen in the future.
This is also the problem with clinical trials. A trial is done on a specific population. Depending upon the population chosen, it may or may not have application to the general population. And, we can’t do a clinical trial on very large numbers- the logistics would be more than daunting. So, we can’t predict what the new drug may do for all potential users- only for “most”…
I agree with what you have said here, Tambre. I don’t think it helps people to hear a doom and gloom prognosis. Howerver, I think I would want to know the severity of my illness so that I could choose the correct treatment plan.
My sister was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins Lymphoma in 2008. She is now in remission and is doing well. She tried several different types of treatments before she found one that could control the disease. The doctors will monitor her condition for many years to come to make sure the cancer doesn’t come back.
I remember when the doctors tried to tell me that I might have breast cancer. I nearly killed them but instead went to a different place while many dire things happened, cancer was not one of the consequences but….
My mathematical husband understands statistics and the one thing he has proven to me over and over again is that if you don’t ask the right questions you get the wrong statistics. And worse – the urban myths grow because of the statistics
I knew I could count on you for some great thoughts on this topic, Roy. You understand stats WAY more than I ever could so I appreciate your insightful additions. Mostly, I love your note that statistics are based on past events, not on a known future outcome.
You make an excellent point…that it isn’t about denial or the other side of the coin, doom and gloom. And it is definitely important to have all the information necessary to make the right treatment choices. Mostly, this is about patients having their wishes honored. In our situation, my late husband asked me to be the filter of some particular kinds of information. He didn’t want to know what might happen, he wanted to instead focus on treatment and resolving side effects he was experiencing. It’s about being aware that you can choose the kind of interactions you want with your doctor and accepting that each person’s needs are unique to them so no one should assume they know what the cancer survivor wants…they should create an open dialogue up front to find out.
I love your fiery nature, Roberta. Not everyone is as strong an advocate for themselves. I love your husband’s point…well taken! And I’m sorry to hear you went through that scare followed by other health challenges. It is a reminder to me to stay on a wellness plan for our health is so important.
Thanks for sharing so much of yourself. No, statistics don’t mean a darn thing when talking about life and health. So sorry for your deep loss. Your blog is inspiring and admirable. You are choosing to focus on what you can do to help others. I love your attitude
Tambre I really admire your inner strength the more and more I read your posts each week. You bring lots of great information and I appreciate your inspiration to live life to its fullest.
Statistics don’t intake the uniqueness and individuality. That’s where it falls short. People are unique, they have different coping mechanism, different strategies, though statistics encompasses what has been it fails to consider what might happen differently.
A very intriguing topic!